Nel ASA: Samsung Partnership Can’t Arrest 26% Weekly Slide as Focus Shifts to Inflation Data

Nel ASA shares tumble 13% in a day, ending week down 26%. Samsung alliance fails to offset weak Q1 orders, net loss, and analyst pessimism as stock waits on US inflation data.

A high-profile technology alliance with Samsung E&A may have strengthened Nel ASA’s product offering, but it did little to steady the stock after one of its worst weeks in months. The Norwegian electrolyser specialist saw its shares tumble almost 13% on Friday alone, closing at €0.26 and bringing the weekly loss to a punishing 26%.

The partnership, unveiled at the World Hydrogen Summit, centres on the CompassH2-A+ system – a 100-megawatt platform built around pressurised alkaline electrolysers in compact 25MW modules that cut floor space requirements by half. More significant is Samsung’s decision to offer a unified full guarantee covering the entire installation, including the stacks. Under previous arrangements, such warranties were typically split across multiple suppliers, complicating financing for project developers. The bundled approach should also shorten the planning phase before final investment decisions.

Yet the market’s reaction suggests the deal has done little to address the deeper concerns hanging over the company. First-quarter figures painted a grim picture: order intake collapsed 73% to 85 million Norwegian kroner, and the bottom line showed a net loss of 144 million kroner. Management has responded by slashing headcount by more than a quarter, a move that trims costs but also reduces manufacturing and project execution capacity. The existing pipeline, the company acknowledges, is insufficient to fill its factories in 2027.

Nel enters the current period with a cash cushion of roughly €125 million, and an additional drip of EU Innovation Fund money – potentially up to €135 million for industrialising the new platform – is expected to flow in the second quarter. That provides a near-term lifeline, but it has not swayed analyst opinion. Of the 13 analysts covering the stock, the majority recommend selling, the rest advise holding, and not a single one rates it a buy.

Technically, the share price is now resting on the 50-day moving average at €0.26, a level that will be watched closely in the coming sessions. The 52-week high of €0.37, reached only in late May, is already nearly 30% away. The relative strength index stands at 40.5 – not yet in oversold territory but reflecting persistent weakness. With annualised 30-day volatility hovering around 105%, the stock is clearly prone to sharp swings.

No company-specific catalyst is expected this week, as Nel enters a two-week silent period before its half-year results on 15 July. Instead, the macro calendar takes centre stage. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May consumer prices on Tuesday, followed by producer prices on Wednesday. For a sector like green hydrogen, where valuations are heavily sensitive to interest-rate expectations and discounting assumptions, surprising inflation readings could add further pressure on capital-intensive projects – or provide relief if the data comes in soft.

Until the July report, the technical and macro environment will dictate the direction. A hold above the 50-day moving average would keep the medium-term trend intact; a break below would bring the 200-day line at €0.21 into view as the next critical support. For now, Nel’s technological progress offers a story, but the market is waiting for orders to match the promise.