KeyBanc Calls Rocket Lab a 'Compelling Buying Opportunity' Ahead of Nasdaq-100 Debut

Rocket Lab shares jumped 6.54% after KeyBanc upgrade and imminent Nasdaq-100 listing, offsetting SpaceX IPO drag. Backlog hits $2.2B, Q1 revenue up 63.5%.

Rocket Lab’s stock roared back on Monday, climbing 6.54% to €94.50 as a fresh analyst upgrade and an impending index inclusion overshadowed the drag from SpaceX’s landmark IPO. The rebound capped a turbulent stretch that had seen the shares shed roughly 14% over the past month, with last Friday alone knocking them down to €88.70 as institutional capital rotated into Elon Musk’s space venture.

KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock stepped in to upgrade the stock from Sector Weight to Overweight on June 14, setting a price target of $135 — implying upside of about 43% from current levels. He described the recent pullback as a “compelling buying opportunity,” arguing that NASA’s accelerating activity, now running at a pace not seen since the Apollo program, is dramatically boosting demand for reliable launch services. With satellite constellations expanding exponentially and launch capacity structurally constrained, well-capitalized providers tied to national security and NASA contracts — such as Rocket Lab — stand to benefit disproportionately.

The next major catalyst arrives on June 22, when Rocket Lab joins the Nasdaq-100 index. Chief executive Peter Beck called the milestone a “historic moment for the space economy.” Index funds tracking the benchmark, with roughly $800 billion in combined assets under management, will be forced to buy the stock, creating structural demand irrespective of broader market conditions. ARK Invest has already begun positioning, purchasing around 3.29 million shares on June 12.

Operationally, the company’s momentum is building. Its backlog has swelled to $2.2 billion, encompassing more than 70 planned missions. At the launch complex in New Zealand, Rocket Lab is preparing a record-breaking series of Electron launches, while a ten-year contract with Japanese earth-observation firm Synspective will see ten dedicated flights starting in 2027.

Revenue hit a record $200.3 million in the first quarter of 2026, up 63.5% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA remained in the red at negative $11.8 million, driven by heavy investment in the Neutron medium-lift rocket. That vehicle is scheduled for its maiden flight in the fourth quarter of 2026, after tank tests caused delays. Financially, the company is well cushioned, with roughly $1.5 billion in cash on hand and a $3 billion at-the-market equity program already authorised.

Rocket Lab has also locked in two important defense contracts: an $816 million deal with the Space Development Agency and a $90 million award from the U.S. Space Force. These add a layer of revenue visibility that helps differentiate the company from pure-play commercial rivals.

Despite the rebound, the stock still sits about 30% below its all-time high of €133.80, reached on May 27. Technical indicators point to neutral territory, with the relative strength index at 47.3 — leaving room for further gains before overbought conditions set in. Over the past twelve months, the shares have surged roughly 300%, and with the Nasdaq-100 entry and Neutron’s first flight both firmly on the calendar, the next few months promise no shortage of triggers. The real test, however, will come on June 22, when investors see how much of the expected index-related buying has already been priced into the stock.