Graphite One Juggles $1.4B Ohio Facility and Alaska Permitting Risks as Rivals Enter FAST-41 Lane

Stock down 40% YTD as Graphite One pursues $2.1B EXIM loans for US graphite supply chain, but Alaska permitting and competitors pose risks.

Graphite One’s stock has shed more than 40% of its value since January, closing Friday at €0.70 — a 4.76% single-day drop that extends the year-to-date slide to 40.34%. The selloff stands in stark contrast to the blueprint the company is assembling: a vertically integrated US graphite supply chain backed by over $2 billion in potential government financing.

The bulk of that capital is earmarked for a processing plant in Ohio, not the headline-grabbing Alaska mine. The US Export-Import Bank has issued non-binding letters of interest for a $1.4 billion, 15-year loan to build the facility — more than quadruple the $325 million originally discussed. A separate $670 million EXIM letter covers the Graphite Creek mining project in Alaska. Together, the two letters would fund roughly 70% of total capital costs, leaving Graphite One to raise the remaining 30% through major North American investment banks.

But the letters carry no legal weight. Formal EXIM applications are not expected until later this year, and the path from intent to approved credit runs through a rigorous due diligence process. The Ohio plant alone calls for seven construction modules, each with an annual capacity of 25,000 tonnes of anode material. The first module carries a price tag of $607 million.

Alaska’s permitting timeline adds another layer of uncertainty. Graphite Creek entered the federal FAST-41 accelerated review programme on 2 June 2025 — the first Alaska mining project to do so. The status was meant to deliver predictable permitting, with all key environmental reviews and federal approvals due by 29 September 2026. The US Army Corps of Engineers is leading the process, though critics are pushing for a full environmental impact statement rather than a shortened version, a change that could blow the schedule.

That September deadline has become more consequential because Graphite One’s early mover advantage in FAST-41 is fading. The Kilbourne graphite project joined the programme last October, and in late March the Coosa project in Alabama was added. Coosa plans to mine natural battery graphite near Rockford, while Kilbourne aims for up to 40,000 tonnes per year from an open-pit and on-site processing operation. Both now benefit from the same coordinated federal review that Graphite One once had to itself.

On the operational front, the company is trying to de-risk the supply chain. The Ohio plant is expected to start processing purchased graphite material in 2028, with its own Alaska concentrate feeding the facility from 2031. On the demand side, Graphite One has secured a multi-year supply agreement with luxury EV maker Lucid, alongside other non-binding offtake arrangements for synthetic and natural anode materials.

To bridge the gap until the EXIM loans are finalised, Graphite One raised C$35 million in gross proceeds from a February public offering. The placement consisted of approximately 20 million units at C$1.75 each, with each unit containing one common share and a warrant exercisable at C$2.25 for 36 months. The company posted a net loss of $9.14 million for fiscal 2025.

Community relations have also moved up the priority list. Graphite One hired Lucille Carter as vice president of community relations, bringing her from the Bering Strait Native Corporation — a strategic partner in the Alaska project — to manage local engagement in the Nome region.

The stock remains under pressure. At €0.70, it trades below its 50-day moving average of €0.78, with an annualised volatility of roughly 61%. The relative strength index of 61.8 suggests no extreme oversold conditions, though the longer-term trend is clearly weak. All eyes are now on the second half of 2026: the FAST-41 clock, the formal EXIM submissions, and the engineering progress for the Ohio plant will determine whether the integrated US graphite strategy moves from paper to production — or whether the new rivals in the fast lane gain the upper hand.