Deutsche Telekom Lifts Guidance and Buys Shares, Yet the Market Remains Unimpressed

Deutsche Telekom beats Q1 estimates, raises 2026 profit forecast, and buys back shares, yet stock hits monthly low amid bearish technicals and macro headwinds.

For all the operational brilliance Deutsche Telekom is delivering, its share price continues to march in the opposite direction. The Bonn-based telecom giant smashed first-quarter expectations, raised its 2026 profit guidance, and is actively buying back stock. None of that has stopped the equity from sliding to a fresh monthly low.

The latest blow came on Monday, when the stock closed at €27.68, dragging the weekly loss past 4%. That puts it roughly 19% below the February peak of €34.35. Both the 50-day moving average at €28.94 and the 200-day line at €29.04 now sit well above the current price — a classic bearish technical setup.

A Buyback When It’s Cheaper

Management is not waiting for a rebound to put its cash to work. On June 5, the group repurchased 323,130 of its own shares at an average price of €27.90, spending about €9 million. The transaction is part of a programme worth up to €2 billion for 2026, most of which is earmarked for cancellation. A smaller portion will be used for employee compensation and incentive plans.

The buyback comes during a weak patch for the stock, which was changing hands at €27.52 on the day of the purchase, down 0.76% from the prior session. On a seven-day view, the loss amounted to 4.44%. For context, the 52-week high of €34.35 is nearly 20% above current levels. The group previously spent roughly €2 billion on buybacks in 2025, underscoring its long-standing commitment to returning capital.

US Engine Powers the Numbers

The fundamental case for the stock, however, has rarely looked better. First-quarter organic revenue rose 4.7% to €29.9 billion, while adjusted EBITDA AL climbed 7.5% to €11.5 billion. Earnings per share landed almost 16% above analyst estimates, driven largely by T-Mobile US.

The American unit posted service revenue growth of 11.5% and added 217,000 postpaid phone customers during the quarter, bringing its total postpaid account base to over 34 million. T-Mobile US is targeting up to one million net additions for the full year. The momentum stateside has flowed directly into Deutsche Telekom’s consolidated figures.

Buoyed by that performance, the board raised its 2026 profit forecast. The management now expects adjusted EBITDA AL of around €47.5 billion and free cash flow (after leases) exceeding €19.8 billion. The recent settlement of a long-running labour dispute — after more than 32,000 employees walked out — removes another element of uncertainty. Analysts at UBS described the new collective wage agreement as a clear positive for planning stability.

Waiting for the Next Catalyst

Despite the upbeat fundamentals and the buyback signal, market participants appear focused on macro headwinds and technical resistance. The stock remains trapped beneath its key moving averages, and a breakout above €29 would be needed to brighten the chart.

The next scheduled updates are the second-quarter results on August 6 and the third-quarter numbers on November 5. Until then, Deutsche Telekom finds itself in an uncomfortable bind: operating at full throttle, yet struggling to gain traction on the trading floor.